JMA's winter forecast has sparked excitement as the ski season approaches.
The Japan Meteorological Association (JMA) has released its highly anticipated seasonal forecast for the upcoming winter season, and, much to the relief of skiers, it bears little resemblance to last year’s report, which correctly predicted below average snowfall and higher temperatures due to the effects of El Niño.
In contrast, JMA is now forecasting the likely (60%) emergence of La Niña, a weather phenomenon that typically results in colder temperatures and increased snowfall, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also supporting this outlook (71%).
Snowfall:
As a result, JMA has predicted a 40% chance of above average snowfall throughout the entire country, with an equal likelihood of near-normal levels and just a 20% chance that the season will fall below average.

Image: JMA
For reference, the last ski season strongly affected by La Niña (2021-22) began with a similar 40/30/30 probability split in its October forecast and finished with record levels of snowfall. Resorts in the Myoko region, for example, received more than 16 m of snow during this period compared with last season’s 10.5 m.
This pattern is also reflected in Snow Japan’s historical snowfall records, which date back to the 2012-13 winter season. Since then, Myoko has averaged 13.8 m of snowfall during the four La Niña-affected ski seasons (2016-17, 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23), and 12.4 m across the remaining eight seasons. Similarly, Nozawa Onsen has averaged nearly 9 m with La Niña present and just 7.2 m without.
Of course, Hokkaido’s ski resorts in Japan’s far north also tend to thrive under La Niña conditions. The world-renowned Niseko resort is one of many that benefited from a strong La Niña presence during the 2021-22 season, amassing 11.4 m of snowfall –15 m by some counts. According to data from Kutchan Town’s weather station, located at ground level (176 m), the resort town receives on average an extra metre of snow during a La Niña-affected season – a statistic that is only amplified at higher altitudes.
Temperatures:
Interestingly, average temperatures throughout Hokkaido and the Tohoku region are more likely (40%) to be within normal range, with a marginally lower chance (30%) of either above- or below-normal temperatures. It’s worth noting, however, that Hokkaido’s average January temperatures sit well below the mainland’s.
Central Hokkaido’s Furano resort, for example, sees January averages of between -12°C (low) and -4°C (high), while Niigata, in the heart of Japan’s yukiguni (snow country) region, averages lows of 2°C and highs of 7°C during this month.

Image: JMA
The Hokuriku region, home to Hakuba Valley, Nozawa Onsen and Lotte Arai Resort, boasts a slightly higher chance (40%) of below average temperatures. For skiers, this spells the potential for pristine powder, improved snow retention, and a potentially longer ski season – all music to the ears.
In contrast, last year’s ski season saw temperatures average 1.27 degrees higher than normal between December 2023 and February 2024, with snow conditions suffering significantly as a result. More than 70 of Japan’s ski resorts were forced to close temporarily during the season, while 15 resorts were unable to open at all.
Conclusion:
Last year’s winter season was Japan’s second hottest on record thanks to the unwelcome presence of El Niño. Conditions then shifted in May this year, bringing a return to more typical weather patterns. Now, JMA’s latest forecast suggests a much frostier outlook (in the best sense) for the upcoming 2024-25 ski season. With La Niña likely to return, colder temperatures and abundant snowfall are shaping up on the horizon, much to the excitement of skiers throughout the country.
Promisingly, JMA’s forecast predicts favourable conditions across all of Japan’s major ski regions, from the expansive slopes of Nagano and Niigata to the world-class powder fields of central and western Hokkaido.
With the yen hovering near its lowest levels in decades, now might be as good a time as any to book a Japanese ski holiday.