Last week we heard that Japan might be days away from announcing a game-changing tourism update, this week the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has predicted a snowier than average 2022/23 winter thanks to, among other things, the likely presence of another La Niña event.

We know that La Niña is typically good news for Japanese ski resorts, and never has that been more evident than the past two winters, which have seen epic conditions and some of the best snowfall totals of the last decade.

Japan winter forecast: December–February

In its seasonal winter forecast, JMA looks at snowfall, temperature, sunshine and precipitation, predicting the likelihood of average, above average and below average occurrences for each. The forecast covers the months of December through to February (most of Japan’s ski season).

Snowfall

JMA has predicted a greater chance of above-average snowfall (40%) in Japan’s Hokkaido and Tohoku regions (home to the likes of Niseko, Rusutsu, Zao Onsen, Appi Kogen) than either average (30%) or below-average snowfall (30%). In the Hokuriku region to the south (Hakuba, Shiga Kogen and Myoko Kogen), the prognosis even better, with only a 20% chance of below-average conditions and an 80% chance of either average or above average conditions.

Japan Meteorological Agency’s snowfall forecast for winter 2022/23

Japan Meteorological Agency’s snowfall forecast for winter 2022/23

Temperatures

The temperature forecasts are not surprisingly just as promising, with a 70% chance of below-average or average conditions in Hokkaido and Tohoku, and an 80% chance in Hokuriku.

Japan Meteorological Agency’s temperature forecast for winter 2022/23

Japan Meteorological Agency’s temperature forecast for winter 2022/23

Sunshine

Don’t get your hopes up for too many sunny days this winter, the chance of an above-normal occurrence is just 20% across the entire country.

Japan Meteorological Agency’s sunshine forecast for winter 2022/23

Japan Meteorological Agency’s sunshine forecast for winter 2022/23

Should you base your travel plans on a long-term forecast?

Long-term seasonal forecasts are difficult at the best of times due to the number of variables at play, and we certainly wouldn’t recommend basing your travel plans on them.

“In general I don’t put a lot of stock in the long-term forecasts, with the exception of the general overriding trends, like the El Niño or La Niña systems and how those play out”, says Andrew Spragg of Rising Sun Guides.

It’s also worth keeping in mind that these charts are based on averages, so even a below-average season in the Hokuriku region, which gets more snowfall than any other inhabited and arable region in the world, is going to produce some very good powder days.

ENQUIRE NOW

Japan backcountry skiingOrganise your guided backcountry skiing tour in Japan

There are lots of options in Hokkaido and Honshu that can be tailored to the kind of skiing you like and when you plan to come. Answer a few questions and we’ll get back to you with some recommendations.

Enquire Now