Speculation about when Japan will re-open to tourists has been rife of late – and you’d be forgiven for thinking the date was right around the corner. Over the last couple of months, Japan’s tourism agency (JNTO) has unveiled a new website, poured thousands into digital campaigns, and even told tourists to “start planning”. Experts are  predicting a tourism boom when the gates eventually do fall.

But James Brady, the head Japan analyst at global consulting firm Teneo, is convinced that tourists won’t be setting foot in the country until after an important parliamentary election on July 25, as was reported this week in the New York Times.

Only then will Prime Minister Fumio Kishida “have the flexibility to start rolling things back and opening up”, he says.

The reasons behind Japan’s reluctance to make a call on tourism ahead if the election are clear, explains the article – namely, that public sentiment remains overwhelmingly in support of measures to control the spread of Covid-19, and that the PM is “unlikely to do anything that might endanger their party’s chances of winning a comfortable majority”.

Kishida has since confirmed that “no specific schedule has been decided”, adding that Japan would first evaluate the the COVID-19 situation in the country as well as border control measures being taken by other nations.

While this won’t please anyone with hopes to catch the end of Japan’s famous cherry blossom season, skiers and snowboarders will be cautiously optimistic about their chances of entering the country when the 2022/23 season rolls around in December.

As it stands, restrictions remain tight. On April 10, Japan will increase its daily entry cap from 7,000 to 10,000 travellers, which includes students, business travellers, residents and Japanese nationals. Negative Covid tests are currently required on departure and arrival, and potentially a period of quarantine depending on vaccination status and country of origin.

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